Team Advancement

Monte Carlo probabilities
Group A
Mexico
W▼
100%
100%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group 3rd-place team
South Africa
R▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group B runner-up
South Korea
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Czechia
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group B
Switzerland
W▼
100%
100%
100%
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group 3rd-place team
Canada
R▼
100%
100%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group A runner-up
Bosnia-Herzegovina
▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Qatar
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group C
Brazil
W▼
100%
100%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group F runner-up
Morocco
R▼
100%
100%
100%
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group F winner
Haiti
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Scotland
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group D
United States
W▼
100%
100%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group 3rd-place team
Paraguay
R▼
100%
100%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group G runner-up
Australia
▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Turkey
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group E
Ivory Coast
W▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group 3rd-place team
Germany
R▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group I runner-up
Ecuador
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Curacao
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group F
Netherlands
W▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group C runner-up
Japan
R▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group C winner
Sweden
▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Tunisia
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group G
Belgium
W▼
100%
100%
100%
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group 3rd-place team
Iran
R▼
100%
35%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group D runner-up
Egypt
▼
100%
100%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
New Zealand
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group H
Uruguay
W▼
100%
65%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group J runner-up
Spain
R▼
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group J winner
Cape Verde
▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Saudi Arabia
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group I
France
W▼
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group 3rd-place team
Senegal
R▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group E runner-up
Norway
▼
100%
100%
100%
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Iraq
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group J
Argentina
W▼
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group H runner-up
Algeria
R▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group H winner
Austria
▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Jordan
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group K
Colombia
W▼
100%
100%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group 3rd-place team
Portugal
R▼
100%
100%
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group L runner-up
Uzbekistan
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
DR Congo
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Group L
England
W▼
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group 3rd-place team
Croatia
R▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
→ vs Group K runner-up
Ghana
▼
100%
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F
Panama
▼
—
—
—
—
—
R32
R16
QF
SF
F